What Happened in Florida Tonight?

Clinton did the turn-around on Obama winning by a landslide in Florida (nearly 20 points) and McCain eked past Romney (36 to 31). What is going on?

Democrat-wise, it looks like Clinton’s questionable campaigning in Florida paid off, at least publicity wise. Remember, the Democratic party took away the delegates from Florida because they moved up their primary. In addition, the democratic candidates agreed NOT to campaign in that state. But, true to form, Clinton decided to start campaigning so Floridian “voices are heard”1. Interesting. So, did Clinton do all this work with nothing to show for it? Hmm, we’ll see come convention time. She is already on the record as recommending that Florida be given back their delegates since they are a crucial swing state.1 Clinton might have been wise to break her pact from a delegate standpoint, but will people respect her lack of character?

Don’t count Obama out. He just receive the unofficial mantle of the democratic party: An endorsement from Ted Kennedy and family. Actually, the bigger endorsement may have been from Caroline Kennedy. Her op-ed in the New York Times was entitled “Obama: A President Like My Dad”. JKF is the standard-bearer for all “true democrats”. With that kind of endorsement, Obama is sure to see many other major players fall in line behind him. In addition, there is talk of a deal between Edwards and Obama. If the convention becomes brokered, Edwards would throw his delegates behind Obama in exchange for an Attorney General position.2 This could swing the nomination to Obama.

So even with a Florida win, Clinton is not on solid footing. The win in Florida, however, gives her momentum and, since she is leading in a majority of the Super Tuesday states, Edwards delegates may not play a role. Let’s wait and see if Obama/Kennedy team fights back.

Republican-wise, it’s a crazy race. The most conservative candidate dropped out. The strict constitionalist is barely making a dent and the rest are, well, rather loose conservatives. One is truly liberal, but ran on a Republican ticket to get elected in New York. Another is an emerging conservative, slowly changing his liberal views to more conservative ones. The third is a republican who, as recently as 2002, considered changing to the Democratic ticket. What’s a conservative to do?

The Florida race seems to have solidified a two man race. Giuliani is likely to drop out soon and is expected to throw support behind McCain. The big swing issues in Florida might just have been immigration (which favored Romney) and Hispanic and Military voters (which favored McCain, especially after the Crist endorsement).3

Extrapolating that to Super Tuesday, McCain seems to be in a great position. Gaining the Hispanic and Military vote in California could give him a significant number of delegates. Combine that with Giuliani’s and he could be the next nominee. The question is --Is McCain conservative enough to head up the republican party or are Conservatives just voting for the man they think can win?

1 AP Clinton to campaign in Florida
2 Real Clear Politics, Robert Novak Attorney General Edwards?
3 FoxNews.com McCain Triumphs in Hard-Fought Florida Primary