Clinton did the turn-around on Obama winning by a landslide in Florida (nearly 20 points) and McCain eked past Romney (36 to 31). What is going on?
Democrat-wise, it looks like Clinton’s questionable campaigning in Florida paid off, at least publicity wise. Remember, the Democratic party took away the delegates from Florida because they moved up their primary. In addition, the democratic candidates agreed NOT to campaign in that state. But, true to form, Clinton decided to start campaigning so Floridian “voices are heard”1. Interesting. So, did Clinton do all this work with nothing to show for it? Hmm, we’ll see come convention time. She is already on the record as recommending that Florida be given back their delegates since they are a crucial swing state.1 Clinton might have been wise to break her pact from a delegate standpoint, but will people respect her lack of character?
Don’t count Obama out. He just receive the unofficial mantle of the democratic party: An endorsement from Ted Kennedy and family. Actually, the bigger endorsement may have been from Caroline Kennedy. Her op-ed in the New York Times was entitled “Obama: A President Like My Dad”. JKF is the standard-bearer for all “true democrats”. With that kind of endorsement, Obama is sure to see many other major players fall in line behind him. In addition, there is talk of a deal between Edwards and Obama. If the convention becomes brokered, Edwards would throw his delegates behind Obama in exchange for an Attorney General position.2 This could swing the nomination to Obama.
So even with a Florida win, Clinton is not on solid footing. The win in Florida, however, gives her momentum and, since she is leading in a majority of the Super Tuesday states, Edwards delegates may not play a role. Let’s wait and see if Obama/Kennedy team fights back.
Republican-wise, it’s a crazy race. The most conservative candidate dropped out. The strict constitionalist is barely making a dent and the rest are, well, rather loose conservatives. One is truly liberal, but ran on a Republican ticket to get elected in New York. Another is an emerging conservative, slowly changing his liberal views to more conservative ones. The third is a republican who, as recently as 2002, considered changing to the Democratic ticket. What’s a conservative to do?
The Florida race seems to have solidified a two man race. Giuliani is likely to drop out soon and is expected to throw support behind McCain. The big swing issues in Florida might just have been immigration (which favored Romney) and Hispanic and Military voters (which favored McCain, especially after the Crist endorsement).3
Extrapolating that to Super Tuesday, McCain seems to be in a great position. Gaining the Hispanic and Military vote in California could give him a significant number of delegates. Combine that with Giuliani’s and he could be the next nominee. The question is --Is McCain conservative enough to head up the republican party or are Conservatives just voting for the man they think can win?
1 AP Clinton to campaign in Florida
2 Real Clear Politics, Robert Novak Attorney General Edwards?
3 FoxNews.com McCain Triumphs in Hard-Fought Florida Primary
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
How disappointing is Rudy's Campaign?
After four GOP primaries, Rudy Giuliani has finished no better than fourth and has collected only 1 delegate (half as many as Duncan Hunter). For the man that all the pundits were claiming was the Frontrunner and was supposedly the only person who could challenge Hillary Clinton (who is facing some serious opposition herself), he is showing that he can't even win vs. some less than stellar Republican hopefuls. Next up is South Carolina where Rudy looks to not fare much better. At this point, he is losing to Ron Paul who, despite having a groundswell of passionate supporters, is certainly less than viable.
His campaign says that he is focusing on Florida where he thinks he can do better. Let me get this straight, Rudy can't win in the Midwest (Iowa), Union Country (Michigan), the Northeast (New Hampshire), the South (South Carolina) or the West (Wyoming)? What kind of national candidate is that? Oh, I forgot - Florida has a heavy concentration of 'snow birds' who spend their summers in NY/NJ. What Rudy really means to say is that America = New York. This is exactly why he is not a serious candidate for the GOP nomination. Most of America and especially Republicans dont think like the majority of New Yorkers! Middle America supports traditional family values, goes to church on most Sundays and wants government to get its hand out of their wallets and leave them alone! This is exactly why we have the Red/Blue state and 'Flyover Country' phenomenons. Being out of touch with middle American voters is the problem that Rudy shares with most of the major media outlets.
Does anyone really think that Americans want a Presidential election between two New Yorkers (Rudy and Hillary)? It's interesting that the past two Democratic presidents were governors from the South. Where will our next President hail from - it's way too early to tell, but it's unlikely that GOP voters will look at their options and choose the man who openly opposes the values that matter to them the most.
His campaign says that he is focusing on Florida where he thinks he can do better. Let me get this straight, Rudy can't win in the Midwest (Iowa), Union Country (Michigan), the Northeast (New Hampshire), the South (South Carolina) or the West (Wyoming)? What kind of national candidate is that? Oh, I forgot - Florida has a heavy concentration of 'snow birds' who spend their summers in NY/NJ. What Rudy really means to say is that America = New York. This is exactly why he is not a serious candidate for the GOP nomination. Most of America and especially Republicans dont think like the majority of New Yorkers! Middle America supports traditional family values, goes to church on most Sundays and wants government to get its hand out of their wallets and leave them alone! This is exactly why we have the Red/Blue state and 'Flyover Country' phenomenons. Being out of touch with middle American voters is the problem that Rudy shares with most of the major media outlets.
Does anyone really think that Americans want a Presidential election between two New Yorkers (Rudy and Hillary)? It's interesting that the past two Democratic presidents were governors from the South. Where will our next President hail from - it's way too early to tell, but it's unlikely that GOP voters will look at their options and choose the man who openly opposes the values that matter to them the most.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Who was that masked man - and what did he do with Fred?
Tonight, he showed up! Fred Thompson, the man we've watched on TV, showed up. That big bear finally came alive. I don't know what sparked him, but it was great to see. Thompson was articulate and direct. He was witty and wise. He certainly showed the others what experience and wisdom looks like.
Is it too late? I don't think it's too late for any of them. Romney only has a small lead in delegate votes and we've only gone through 2 primary/caucuses. At this point anyone CAN win. The question really is - Has Thompson energized his base AND can they "steal" votes from the other camps?
Everyone is talking and trying to say what conservatives want to hear. But, as voters, we have to look at not only their current promises, but their track records. I think that's what Fred was trying to point out about Huckabee.
Take a look at where each stands now and in the past. It's surprising. Several are certainly more liberal than they appear. Others are most consistent than you would have thought. Try
http://politicallyspeaking08.googlepages.com/ there's an "ISSUES CORNER" that compares all the candidates.
Is it too late? I don't think it's too late for any of them. Romney only has a small lead in delegate votes and we've only gone through 2 primary/caucuses. At this point anyone CAN win. The question really is - Has Thompson energized his base AND can they "steal" votes from the other camps?
Everyone is talking and trying to say what conservatives want to hear. But, as voters, we have to look at not only their current promises, but their track records. I think that's what Fred was trying to point out about Huckabee.
Take a look at where each stands now and in the past. It's surprising. Several are certainly more liberal than they appear. Others are most consistent than you would have thought. Try
http://politicallyspeaking08.googlepages.com/ there's an "ISSUES CORNER" that compares all the candidates.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Hillary's "victim" strategy
It was an amazing thing to watch. After all the polls and all the pundits predicted an overwhelming win for Obama and after we heard that the Clinton camp was considering folding, Hillary pulls out a win from no where. No, I'm not saying she cheated - I'm not a conspirist. I am saying that someone in her camp is BRILLIANT!
"IRON MY SHIRT"! Those three little letters transformed Hillary from old (bitter) guard, hanging on to her husband's record to poor woman just trying to make it in a man's world. Where did this come from? For years, women have been running for different political offices, INCLUDING President of the U.S.. Never have any of them been pelted with archic chants reflecting the barefoot/pregnant believes of old. Not even in the deep south where, let's face it, some men still feel this way. No, no modern woman has ever faced this problem. But suddenly, men have reverted back?
Let's look at the timeline:
Obama wins in Iowa.
Obama starts to pull ahead of Hillary in NH.
In the debates, to most women, Hillary comes off bitter and defensive. Her numbers fall.
Pundits and polls begin saying Hillary should brace for the loss. What will she do?
Suddenly, Hillary, that tower of strength, gets soft, emotional, almost, well, teary eyed. The news reports this as if another tsumani was coming.
Then, a lone man stands up in one of her speeches chanting and holding up a sign that says "Iron my shirt". Hmm, What to do next???
Hillary, being the curious and compassionate person she is asks the light to be brought up so all can see him (btw, did he look like Bill?). Having a couple of well written responses she throws them out - "sexism is alive and well" - nice reflection back to the "tear" incident and the commotion it caused- and "still one glass ceiling" that needs to be broken. Hmmm.
Nothing gets women madder than playing the sexism card. Especially these Northern, independant, I don't need a man, voting on emotion women. These incidents bound the women of NH to Hillary as blood sisters, fighting the battle against "sexism". Today's vote for Hillary was a vote against sexism and perceived oppression.
I don't know that she can carry this role for 48 more states, plus territories, but I'm sure she'll try. And if that doesn't work, I'm confident someone in her camp will come up with another equally brilliant and surprising strategy.
"IRON MY SHIRT"! Those three little letters transformed Hillary from old (bitter) guard, hanging on to her husband's record to poor woman just trying to make it in a man's world. Where did this come from? For years, women have been running for different political offices, INCLUDING President of the U.S.. Never have any of them been pelted with archic chants reflecting the barefoot/pregnant believes of old. Not even in the deep south where, let's face it, some men still feel this way. No, no modern woman has ever faced this problem. But suddenly, men have reverted back?
Let's look at the timeline:
Obama wins in Iowa.
Obama starts to pull ahead of Hillary in NH.
In the debates, to most women, Hillary comes off bitter and defensive. Her numbers fall.
Pundits and polls begin saying Hillary should brace for the loss. What will she do?
Suddenly, Hillary, that tower of strength, gets soft, emotional, almost, well, teary eyed. The news reports this as if another tsumani was coming.
Then, a lone man stands up in one of her speeches chanting and holding up a sign that says "Iron my shirt". Hmm, What to do next???
Hillary, being the curious and compassionate person she is asks the light to be brought up so all can see him (btw, did he look like Bill?). Having a couple of well written responses she throws them out - "sexism is alive and well" - nice reflection back to the "tear" incident and the commotion it caused- and "still one glass ceiling" that needs to be broken. Hmmm.
Nothing gets women madder than playing the sexism card. Especially these Northern, independant, I don't need a man, voting on emotion women. These incidents bound the women of NH to Hillary as blood sisters, fighting the battle against "sexism". Today's vote for Hillary was a vote against sexism and perceived oppression.
I don't know that she can carry this role for 48 more states, plus territories, but I'm sure she'll try. And if that doesn't work, I'm confident someone in her camp will come up with another equally brilliant and surprising strategy.
Monday, January 7, 2008
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